4 Health Insurance Reform Alternatives for Supreme Court

The Supreme Court is set to rule on the consitutionality on the health reform bill, or Affordable Care Act (ACA), in the next few days (June 21-25). So, in yesterday's webinar, The History and Future of Small Business Health Insurance, Professor Paul Zane Pilzer outlined 4 possible outcomes for the Supreme Court Ruling. Which option do you think is most likely? Tell us in the comment section.

1) Uphold Entire ACA

For this to happen, 1 of 5 Republican Justices (for example, Roberts or Kennedy) would have to side with President Obama and the Democratic party. If this were to happen, the entire presidential election will be centered around Romney vs Obama on the topic of repealing health reform.

2) Invalidate Part of ACA

Under this scenario, the Supreme Court would remove the individual health insurance mandate. Both sides agree that they must then invalidate Guaranteed Issue since only unhealthy would purchase insurance. 

3) Reject Entire ACA

Under this theory, congress wouldn’t have passed the bill without all its major provisions (e.g. Guaranteed Issue + Mandate + Federal Subsidies + Exchanges).  In other words, without the Mandate, the bill never would have been passed.

4) Postpone Ruling Until 2015

The logic here is that the individual mandate must have taken effect (post-2014) to have a valid claim before the U.S. Supreme Court. If so, the bill might stand until 2015 or might postpone implementation.

Note: This should not be taken as legal or tax advice.